The Fed Meets This Week
The FOMC meets today and tomorrow, with a rate decision Wednesday at 2:00pm ET. The market is pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a hike — not a cut. Chair Walsh has shown he won’t overreact to a single price shock like the recent oil spike, and he’s waiting on intel from the five task forces he’s deployed before acting. Notably, ex-Fed Governor Stephen Miran, a hawkish voice back in 2021, made the opposite case on CNBC this week: he argues today’s inflation gauges are overstated by a portfolio-management-fee quirk, that June core CPI actually posted a negative month, and that money supply and inflation expectations, his 2021 warning signs, are now stable. Either way the meeting lands, the message holds: a cut is not on the table.
4.60%
10-YEAR YIELD
climbed all week
>5%
30-YR TREASURY
longest since 2007
~34%
ODDS OF A HIKE
this week’s meeting
+6%
PURCHASE APPS
despite high rates
$18 Trillion in Home Equity
Away from the rate headlines, Cotality’s latest Homeowner Equity Insights tell a genuinely reassuring story. Mortgaged homeowners are sitting on nearly $18 trillion in equity — $34 trillion across all owned homes. Across 56.7 million mortgaged properties, the average borrower holds $311,000 in equity.
Even better: negative equity has fallen to just 1.9% of mortgaged homes, a little over a million properties, against a peak of 26% in the depths of 2009. Almost nobody is trapped by their mortgage right now — a combination of years of price appreciation and ordinary amortization doing quiet, steady work.
What this means for you
With this much equity sitting in the average home, it’s worth a conversation even if you’re not thinking about your rate. Many homeowners have crossed the threshold to remove mortgage insurance without realizing it. And for some, debt consolidation can free up more monthly cashflow than chasing the lowest possible rate ever could. Almost nobody is underwater, which means almost everybody has options.
This Week’s Rate Watch
| Average Rates | Current | 1 Day | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Yr. Fixed | 6.76% | -0.04% ▼ | +0.01% ▲ | +0.23% ▲ | -0.05% ▼ |
| 15 Yr. Fixed | 6.31% | -0.02% ▼ | +0.11% ▲ | +0.19% ▲ | +0.25% ▲ |
| 30 Yr. FHA | 6.32% | -0.04% ▼ | 0.00 – | +0.25% ▲ | -0.07% ▼ |
| 30 Yr. Jumbo | 6.89% | -0.01% ▼ | +0.02% ▲ | +0.13% ▲ | -0.01% ▼ |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.34% | -0.04% ▼ | -0.16% ▼ | +0.11% ▲ | +0.08% ▲ |
| 30 Yr. VA | 6.34% | -0.03% ▼ | 0.00 – | +0.25% ▲ | -0.06% ▼ |
▼ green = rate improved
▲ red = rate rose. Change columns show the move over that period, not the rate level.
Source: Mortgage News Daily, 7/28/26.
Spokane Market Watch
- ~$430K: Median sale price • still rising
- +1.7%: Home values, year over year
- ~4 mo: Supply • more balanced for buyers
- Tight: Single-family inventory stays low
- $55K+: Listing floor • sub-$100K is rare
- Steady: Not a market that’s getting cheaper
Spokane’s median continues to run in the low-$400Ks with values still appreciating. Inventory has loosened enough that buyers no longer have to waive every contingency, but single-family supply stays tight.
Skip’s Take
Two cool inflation reports in recent weeks haven’t brought mortgage rates down, and now you know why: it isn’t just the Fed, it’s the Treasury market itself facing structural pressure that no single meeting fixes. Tomorrow’s decision matters less than people assume either way — a cut was never on the table. But the equity story is the one worth sitting with: almost nobody is underwater, and the average owner has $311,000 in cushion. That’s real staying power, and real options, even in a market that doesn’t feel like it’s giving anyone a break. Marry the house, date the rate — and let’s talk about what your equity can do for you today.
Connect With Skip
- Got questions? Reach out to Skip Leasure
*This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and is not a commitment to lend, an offer to extend credit, or financial advice. Interest rates and market data are as of the date shown, are subject to change without notice, and represent survey averages rather than a quoted rate for any individual borrower. Actual rates depend on credit, property, loan program, and other factors. Figures: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mortgage News Daily, the Federal Reserve, and the Spokane Association of REALTORS®.
